Wednesday, May 14, 2008

End of an era?

Former Mets general manager Steve Phillips, now an ESPN baseball analyst, made some interesting statements today on the network's "Mike and Mike in the Morning."

Referencing the Mitchell Report, the result of the congressional investigation into performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, Phillips said its effects are being seen this season as players apparently have been "scared straight." At the current pace by which home runs are being hit, the major-league total for 2008 would be down by nearly 1,000 compared with 2006.

A look at the leader board helps tell the story. In the National League, Lance Berkman and Chase Utley are tied for the home-run lead with 13, and after a surge this week, Dan Uggla has 12. About a quarter of the way into the season, those project to some healthy final totals, in line with what we've been accustomed to seeing the past 15 years but nothing to rank in the Bonds-McGwire-Sosa realm.

Now, look at the American League. The home-run leader is a guy named Carlos Quentin, who didn't even have a starting job wrapped up for the White Sox coming out of spring training. Quentin has nine, trailed by established sluggers Manny Ramirez and Carlos Pena with eight each.

At that rate, the AL leader at year's end would have fewer than 40. For anyone who followed baseball closely in the 1970s and '80s, such league-leading totals were commonplace. But we haven't seen a fewer-than-40 American League home-run champ since Toronto's Fred McGriff in 1989, and that includes the 1994 strike season.

(McGriff, coincidentally, also is the last National Leaguer to accomplish the same feat, for San Diego in 1992).

Phillips pointed out that doubles and triples also are down in the majors, and he concluded his observations by stating that maybe this marks the beginning of the end of the so-called Steroid Era.

In that case, baseball historians can consider putting their own asterisks, if not official, on the period of 1995-2007, from the first post-strike season to the issuance of the Mitchell Report.

Goodbye, Barry. Welcome back, Henry and Roger!

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